據(jù)福布斯網(wǎng)站4月21日報道，受通脹影響，美國民眾對經(jīng)濟(jì)前景愈加悲觀。最新的福布斯益普索消費(fèi)者信心雙周追蹤調(diào)查顯示，消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)較兩周前下降4%至53.1，較疫情前水平下降了7個百分點(diǎn)。63%的受訪者認(rèn)為在不久的將來通脹將繼續(xù)上升。

After a brief flirtation with good cheer, US consumer confidence is on the back foot again.
在短暫樂觀情緒之后，美國消費(fèi)者信心再次受到打擊。

The latest Forbes Advisor-Ipsos Consumer Confidence Biweekly Tracker dropped 4% from two weeks ago to 53.1. That’s a solid 7 points below its pre-pandemic level.
最新的福布斯益普索消費(fèi)者信心雙周追蹤調(diào)查顯示，消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)較兩周前下降4%至53.1，較疫情前水平下降了7個百分點(diǎn)。

The increased pessimism dovetails with the 63% of respondents who said that they believe inflation will go up in the near future.
消費(fèi)者對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)愈加悲觀，63%的受訪者認(rèn)為在不久的將來通脹將繼續(xù)上升。

“Inflation is on the top of everyone’s mind,” said Jason Gordo, managing director at Goldman Sachs Personal Financial Management. “We’re all buying food.”
高盛個人金融管理公司總經(jīng)理杰森·戈多稱：“所有人都非常關(guān)心通貨膨脹問題，因?yàn)槲覀兌家徺I食物。”

Given how hard it will be to tamp down price growth, consumers are likely to be in a sour mood for a long while.
考慮到抑制物價增長的難度，消費(fèi)者的消極情緒可能會持續(xù)很長一段時間。

Weak Consumer Confidence Despite the Strong Jobs Market
就業(yè)市場強(qiáng)勁 消費(fèi)者信心薄弱

American consumers are dissatisfied with their financial situation despite a robust job market.
盡管就業(yè)市場強(qiáng)勁，但美國消費(fèi)者對自己的財務(wù)狀況并不滿意。

The jobs index of the Forbes Advisor-Ipsos survey held steady over the past two weeks, and remains well above its historical average.
福布斯益普索調(diào)查的就業(yè)指數(shù)在過去兩周保持穩(wěn)定，遠(yuǎn)高于歷史平均水平。

That jibes with the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs data, which reported an unemployment rate of 3.6% in March. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims have fallen to their lowest level since 1968.
這與美國勞工統(tǒng)計局最新的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)相符，該機(jī)構(gòu)報告3月份的失業(yè)率為3.6%。與此同時，首次申請失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)已降至1968年以來的最低水平。

But the survey’s current index, which gauges how people feel about their finances right now, dropped 4 points over the last two week, and is now more than 10 points lower than where it stood in March 2020.
但該調(diào)查的當(dāng)前消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)（衡量人們目前對財務(wù)狀況的看法）在過去兩周下降了4個百分點(diǎn)，較2020年3月的水平降低了10個點(diǎn)以上。

The continuing impact of high inflation is the most likely candidate for the weaker current index. The most recent survey was conducted shortly after the March consumer price index (CPI) data, which showed annualized CPI inflation up 8.5%, another four-decade high.
當(dāng)前指數(shù)走弱最可能是受到美國高通脹的持續(xù)影響。最近一次調(diào)查前不久發(fā)布了3月消費(fèi)者價格指數(shù)（CPI），該數(shù)據(jù)顯示，CPI年化通脹率上升8.5%，創(chuàng)下美國40年來歷史新高。

And while wages are seeing strong growth, they’re still being eroded by inflation. Real earnings—that is pay adjusted for the impact of annual inflation—dropped 2.7% from March 2021 to March 2022, per the BLS.
雖然工資增長強(qiáng)勁，但仍受到通貨膨脹的侵蝕。根據(jù)美國勞工統(tǒng)計局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)，從2021年3月到2022年3月的實(shí)際收入（即根據(jù)年度通貨膨脹的影響進(jìn)行調(diào)整的薪酬）下降了2.7%。

Americans continue to see their purchasing power eroded by price increases. That means more consumers may now avoid the kinds of big-ticket purchases they had been making during the pandemic, especially as supply chain snarls continue to disrupt product availability.
美國民眾的購買力繼續(xù)被物價上漲所侵蝕。這意味著更多的消費(fèi)者現(xiàn)在可能會避免在疫情期間購買高價商品，尤其是在供應(yīng)鏈混亂繼續(xù)擾亂產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)的情況下。

In fact, just 38% of survey respondents said they were more comfortable making a big purchase than they were six months ago, down six percentage points from the prior survey. That’s bad news for the US economy, and attitudes like these may be contributing to talk about the possibility of a renewed recession.
事實(shí)上，只有38%的受訪者表示，與六個月前相比，他們更愿意進(jìn)行大額消費(fèi)，較之前的調(diào)查下降了6個百分點(diǎn)。這對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)來說是個壞消息，像這樣的消費(fèi)者情緒可能會讓人們擔(dān)心再次出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性。

Rising Interest Rates and Slowing Growth
利率上漲 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩

Rising inflation expectations and reticent consumers pose big challenges for the Federal Reserve as it continues to raise interest rates throughout 2022 and into next year.
不斷上升的通脹預(yù)期和消極的消費(fèi)者讓將在今年和明年持續(xù)加息的美聯(lián)儲面臨著巨大挑戰(zhàn)。

The Fed is striving to dampen inflation, but the threat of a new recession means it can’t raise rates too high or too quickly.
美聯(lián)儲正在努力抑制通貨膨脹，但新一輪衰退的威脅意味著不能把利率提高得太高或太快。

One sign of the Fed’s dilemma can be seen in rising mortgage rates, which are already having a negative impact on US homeowners and home buyers alike.
美聯(lián)儲進(jìn)退兩難的一個跡象是抵押貸款利率上升，這已經(jīng)對美國房主和購房者產(chǎn)生了負(fù)面影響。

According to the most recent Forbes Advisor-Ipsos survey, Americans expect mortgage rates to keep climbing. Nearly 60% of respondents said they think mortgage rates will rise in the future, compared to just 6% who believe they’ll go down.
根據(jù)最新的福布斯益普索調(diào)查，美國人預(yù)測抵押貸款利率將持續(xù)攀升。近60%的受訪者表示，他們認(rèn)為未來抵押貸款利率會上升，而只有6%的受訪者認(rèn)為會下降。

A slowing housing market could further threaten the US economy. The average price for a home is at an all-time high, while 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hit 5% for the first time since 2011, and are almost two percentage points higher than was the case just four months ago.
房地產(chǎn)市場放緩可能進(jìn)一步威脅美國經(jīng)濟(jì)。房屋均價創(chuàng)歷史新高，30年期固定利率抵押貸款自2011年以來首次達(dá)到5%，比四個月前高出近兩個百分點(diǎn)。

Heightened Concerns among Investors
投資者擔(dān)憂加劇

The survey’s reading on the investing outlook was bleak, which is not surprising given the bond market’s struggles with rising interest rates at the same time as the stock market is being whipped around by staggering volatility.
該調(diào)查對投資前景的黯淡解讀不足為奇，因?yàn)樵诠墒袆邮幍耐瑫r，債券市場也在為利率上升而掙扎。

The survey’s investment index dropped more than any other, and is presently 10 points lower than its March 2020 level.
該調(diào)查的投資指數(shù)跌幅最大，較2020年3月的水平低10個百分點(diǎn)。

Bond investors have gotten their teeth knocked over the past three months. The Bloomberg US Government Bond Index dropped 5.5% in the first quarter, its worst performance since 1980.
在過去的三個月里，債券投資者遭遇重創(chuàng)。彭博社美國政府債券指數(shù)第一季度下跌5.5%，為1980年以來的最差表現(xiàn)。

來源：福布斯網(wǎng)站
編輯：董靜