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    專家:下半年中國將助力穩定全球供應鏈

    專家指出,中國的貿易順差有利于穩定匯率和通脹水平,而且中國將繼續致力于穩定全球供應鏈。

    專家:下半年中國將助力穩定全球供應鏈

    來源:中國日報網 2022-08-05 15:45
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    今年上半年,在全球多個主要經濟體出現貿易逆差的情況下,中國的貿易順差卻達到了2.48萬億元。專家指出,中國的貿易順差有利于穩定匯率和通脹水平,而且中國將繼續致力于穩定全球供應鏈。

     

    A freight train leaves Hefei, Anhui province, for Budapest, Hungary, last week. [SONG YANJUN/FOR CHINA DAILY]

     

    China will play a key role in underpinning the global supply chain in the second half of the year amid government policy measures to stabilize the economy while tackling the impact of COVID-19 via targeted means, experts said.

    專家稱,在政府精準防控疫情和穩經濟的政策措施下,下半年中國對于加強全球供應鏈將發揮關鍵作用。

     

    Although major economies such as Germany, France, South Korea and the United States saw trade deficits in recent months, the surplus of China's foreign trade topped 2.48 trillion yuan ($367 billion) in the first half, as exports soared after the COVID-19 resurgences were brought under control in the Yangtze River Delta region in May and June, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

    近幾個月來,盡管德國、法國、韓國和美國等主要經濟體都出現了貿易逆差,中國上半年外貿順差卻達到了2.48萬億元。海關總署的數據顯示,在疫情得到控制后,長三角地區5月和6月的出口額大幅增長。

     

    As China's trade surplus rose significantly to $97.94 billion in June from $78.76 billion in May, experts said the growth has helped buffer the yuan's exchange rate with other major currencies and further stabilize the domestic inflation rate, reducing the need to raise interest rates or intervene on the currency exchange rate.

    中國的貿易順差從5月的787.6億美元升至6月的979.4億美元,專家稱這一大幅增長有助于緩和其他主要貨幣對人民幣匯率的沖擊,能進一步穩定國內通脹率,也降低了加息或干預貨幣匯率的需求。

     

    As the US Federal Reserve raised key interest rates steeply to curb runaway inflation in the second quarter, the euro, the pound and the Japanese yen all plunged against the US dollar. The currency depreciation in these major economies has brought stagflation and downside risks, said Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the China Association of Policy Science's economic policy committee.

    第二季度受美聯儲為抑制惡性通脹大幅加息影響,歐元、英鎊和日元紛紛對美元貶值。中國政策科學研究會經濟政策委員會副主任徐洪才指出,這些主要經濟體的貨幣貶值引發了滯漲和下行風險。

     

    As many traditional manufacturing powerhouses such as Germany and South Korea must import large amounts of raw materials to meet the demand from the local manufacturing sector, the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, high inflation rate in the US, and soaring global energy and commodity prices have all pushed these countries to spend more on import of both energy and production materials since the second quarter, Xu said.

    由于德國和韓國等許多傳統制造業強國必須進口大量原材料來滿足本地制造業需求,受俄烏沖突、美國高通脹、全球能源和商品價格飆升的影響,第二季度以來這些國家被迫增加用于進口能源和生產材料的支出。

     

    Even though facing imported inflationary pressure, China, supported by its ongoing industrial transformation and upgrading, will continue to work toward stabilizing the global supply chain, said Wei Qijia, a researcher at the Economic Forecasting Department of the State Information Center.

    國家信息中心預測部研究員魏琪嘉表示,雖然面臨著輸入性通脹壓力,中國在當前產業轉型升級的支持下仍將繼續致力于穩定全球供應鏈。

     

    He said China's highly concentrated supply chains, efficient productivity, relatively lower domestic costs of industrial power and production materials, as well as many trade partners' heavy dependence on its industrial goods and semifinished products, will keep the growth rate of the nation's trade surplus within a reasonable range in the coming months.

    魏琪嘉指出,中國擁有最完整的的供應鏈、高效的生產率、相對較低的工業用電和生產原料價格,再加上很多貿易伙伴都嚴重依賴中國的工業產品和半成品,這將使中國的貿易順差增速在未來數月保持在合理范圍內。

     

    "China does not pursue trade surplus on purpose. The accelerated trade surplus growth in the first half of the year was mainly attributable to the epidemic-induced import volume contraction," said Wei Jianguo, vice-president of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges in Beijing.

    中國國際經濟交流中心副理事長魏建國表示,中國并非有意追求貿易順差,上半年貿易順差增速加快主要應歸因于疫情引發的進口量減少。

     

    He predicted that China's trade surplus growth may slow down during the second half of the year, as the nation is expected to import large amounts of energy, minerals and machinery to speed up effective infrastructure investment in pursuit of a more vigorous economic recovery.

    魏建國預測,中國下半年貿易順差的增速可能會放緩,為了加速有效基建投資,為經濟復蘇添活力,我國預計會進口大量能源、礦產品和機器。

     

    Zhang Jianping, head of the center for regional economic cooperation at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, said a certain amount of uncertainty shrouds China's second-half exports due to fluctuations in global market demand. But, given the better-than-expected export performance during the first half, China should accelerate effective policy implementation to promote robust growth of foreign trade.

    中國國際貿易經濟合作研究院區域經濟合作研究中心主任張建平稱,由于全球市場需求的波動,下半年中國出口存在著一定的不確定性。但是,在上半年出口表現好于預期的情況下,中國應加快落實有效政策,促進外貿的強勁增長。

     

    Only by encouraging and facilitating enterprises to receive new business orders could the nation expand export market space amid uncertainties, he said.

    他指出,只有鼓勵和助力企業接到新訂單,國家才能在充滿不確定性的環境中拓展出口市場空間。

     

    Nio, China's new energy vehicle manufacturer, is one such enterprise in pursuit of more business, said Zhang Hui, vice-president of Nio Europe. In addition to exporting electric vehicles to Norway, it is building its first overseas plant in Hungary to support its expansion in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark later this year.

    蔚來汽車歐洲副總裁張暉指出,中國新能源汽車生產商蔚來就是尋求更多商機的企業之一。除了向挪威出口電動汽車,蔚來正在匈牙利建設首個海外工廠以支持其今年下半年在德國、荷蘭、瑞典和丹麥的擴張計劃。

     

    Nio's Hungary factory is expected to be operational in September and serve as a production, service and R&D center for the company's power products, including battery-swapping stations in Europe, said Zhang.

    張暉表示,蔚來汽車的匈牙利工廠有望在9月開始運營,并作為蔚來電動汽車的生產、服務和研發中心,包括在歐洲的換電站。

     

    英文來源:中國日報

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